Integrating Climate Change into the ICZM planning process - Analysis and Future

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Introduction  


Establishment  


Analysis and Futures  


Setting the Vision  


Designing the Future  


Realising the Vision  


 


CC ICZM Process/EstablishmentCC ICZM Process/Analysis and FutureCC ICZM Process/Setting the visionCC ICZM Process/Designing the FutureCC ICZM Process/Realizing the VisionICZM pegaso 3 3.png
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Building the evidence

The aim of this stage is to establish an operational foundation for the subsequent preparation of the plan and its implementation. From a climate viewpoint the key tasks are to:

  1. Identify the main elements of climate variability and change in the short- (10-20 years), mid- (30-40 years), and long-term (60+ years) periods.
  2. The impacts of this variability on key sectors and the risks associated with them.

The work described below is part of the preparation of the plan, although the strategy should describes the broad structure of the climatic data that needs to be collected and analysed and the tools to be used for this purpose.

Elements of Climate Variability and Change

Increases in average annual temperature at a Mediterranean Basin scale are likely to be slightly higher than at a world level [1] [2]. This increase is estimated at approximately between 2°C and 6.5°C by the end of the century (compared with a global mean increase between 1.1°C and 6.4°C). The probability of temperatures rising by between 3 and 4°C is estimated at 50%.

Table 1: Possible climate related Indicators that complement other indicators for the ICZM

Possible climate related Indicators that complement other indicators for the ICZM.png
Note: Each indicator will need further clarification refinement before it can be estimated.

These and other broad estimates of climate impacts in the region are a strong indication of the magnitude of the impacts that need to be taken into account in any future ICZM plans. In doing, however, it is important to avoid duplication of effort and to draw on existing work that has been undertaken at the national, regional and global levels. The best point of departure is the National Communication by the country the UNFCC, which should provide at least national level estimates of the main impacts in terms of temperature increase, sea level rise, precipitation and extreme events. By the very nature of the problem [3], such data cannot consist of point estimates, but must be provided in the form of ranges. Thus they will take a form that makes it appropriate to adopt a risk based assessment at future stages of the process. Box 1 provides a description of the kind of data available for a mature economy such as the United Kingdom. Tables 2 and 3 describe the data that is typically provided. Other countries may not have quite the same level of geographical detail; if the impacts are likely to be significant it may be worth asking a specialised agency such as the UK Met Office or the Danish Climate centre to customise projections for specific coastal regions. This is likely to involve some outlays, which may be recoverable from international institutions supporting the preparation of the programme.

Box1: Impacts data Available for Coastal Zones in the UK

Data are available for a range of future socio-economic scenarios and allowing for different probabilities of climatic outcomes. For example, in the UK the following kinds of data are available for 25x25km grids on a probabilistic basis. The 20 variables for which date are given are listed in Table 1. Projections are averaged for each of seven future overlapping 30 year time periods: 2010-2039; 2020-2049; 2030-2059; 2040-2069: 2050-2079; 2060-2089; 2070-2099. All changes are expressed relative to a modeled 30-yr baseline period of 1961-1990.

Some information is also available in probabilistic terms, which provides a central estimate (e.g. 50% probability of not being more than a given increase in temperature), and very unlikely events (e.g. a 10% probability of being less than a given increase in mean temperature value or more than a given increase in mean temperature). These are based on 3 emissions scenarios plus other uncertain parameters. For marine areas the information available includes, as noted in Table 1, the sea level rise (with the probabilistic information as indicated above for mean temperature rise). In addition the marine projections include information on projected storm surges. The last gives the projected elevation of the projected high tide under different return levels (e.g. 50 year return levels). Figures are available with different confidence intervals. A third piece of climate information that is projected is changes in offshore waves. This gives changes in winter mean wave height but uncertainties in this variable cannot be expressed in probabilistic terms.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change

The data on climate variability and change is used to assess the impacts in the key sectors of interest and to assess the risks involved. In coastal zones the key sectors are likely to be the following:

  • Impacts on agriculture
  • Coastal infrastructure (housing, public buildings, roads etc.)
  • Impacts of extreme events (heat waves, floods etc.)
  • Sea level rise
  • Availability of freshwater
  • Impacts on tourism
  • Loss of ecosystem services through low river flows, flooding etc.
  • Supply and demand for energy

Table 2: Data Provided on a Downscaled Basis for Making a Risk Assessment

Data Provided on a Downscaled Basis for Making a Risk Assessment.jpg

Source: UK Climate Projections Briefing Report, 2009. Note:

  1. Net surface long wave flux is a measure of the total amount of long wave radiation that flows through a unit area per unit time at the Earth’s surface.
  2. Net surface short wave flux is a measure of the total amount of shortwave radiation that flows through a unit area per unit time at the Earth’s surface.
  3. Total downward surface shortwave flux is a measure of the amount of shortwave radiation received by a unit area per unit time at the Earth’s surface.
Typical Data Reported from the Climate Models Projections for SW England in the 2050s.png

References

  1. Hallegatte S, Somot S & Nassopoulos H. (2007). Région méditerranéenne et changement climatique: une nécessaire anticipation. Expert report IPEMed.
  2. Van Grunderbeeck P & Tourre YM. (2008). Bassin méditerranéen: changement climatique et impacts au cours du XXIème siècle. In: Thibault HL & Quéfélec S. (eds.) Changement climatique et énergie en Méditerranée, 1:1, 1.3-1.69.
  3. :One important reason is that future emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases are not known and depend on what policies are adopted to control them. But other sources of uncertainty also exist.